Elon Musk might be right about humans landing on Mars by 2026
Is he overconfident, or ahead of our time?
In a 2010 interview, Elon Musk said he hoped to be “involved in things that have an impact on the world.” But now, it seems he has outdone himself, looking to make an impact out of this world as he claims humans will be on Mars much sooner than we had expected!
In recent interview, Elon Musk said he‘s highly confident that his company SpaceX can send humans to Mars by 2026. While that seems like a farfetched statement, Musk has a track record of creating success out of ideas that seem ahead of our time. So, is he overconfident, or is there any reality behind his statement? Here, we will critically analyze the possibility of Musk’s plan happening and where it leaves humanity.
How Does Musk Plan To Go To Mars?
SpaceX plans to replace all of its rockets, including the Falcon 9, with the Starship rocket. The Starship is a work in progress that looks and functions like the space ships we see in movies.
It's being designed to carry humans to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. It's fair to call it Elon Musk's dream vehicle. On December 9th, 2020, Musk launched a prototype of the Starship. The rocket had a successful launch but exploded upon landing after being unable to slow down in time. Musk was in surprisingly good spirits after the crash landing, taking to Twitter to explain why it happened!
Fuel header tank pressure was low during landing burn, causing touchdown velocity to be high & RUD, but we got all the data we needed! Congrats SpaceX team hell yeah!!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 9, 2020
Judging by Elon Musk's positive reaction, it seems that everything is on course. 2021 may see more prototype tests of the Starship, and if things go well, it will be the rocket that Musk will ride to Mars.
Unmanned Spaceship vs. Manned Spaceship
There is a lot of debate on the type of spaceship that would go to Mars first. Despite putting rovers on the planet, there is much we don't know about the Red Planet and its climate.
Although there has been lots of research on Mars colonization, conclusions are more speculative than factual. The recent Starship prototype that was launched was unmanned. And, before a manned spaceship can be sent, a number of uncrewed vehicles need to be successfully launched.
Additionally, engineers must confront the problem of creating a vehicle capable of travelling the long distance to Mars. Then, they must be certain the ship’s resources and environment will sustain human life once they land.
After this, it will take a while to convince the masses that a manned trip to Mars is feasible. But, the first trip, likely manned by a small test crew, may find volunteers easily. We can imagine the first space explorers will be unimaginably thrilled to be the first to land on Mars.
The Effect of Elon Musk’s Plan on Humanity
The journey Musk is embarking on is a pioneer project that will mark the beginning of life outside of Earth.
A chance to start fresh
Earth has been slowly developed by humans over the past couple million years. Government structures were built on their control of land, and just about every part of our lives is related to how we have used our space on Earth. This will all change as humans begin developing Mars. Who will control the planet? What will our first colonies look like? What new possibilities will this bring?
A brand new culture may be birthed and the creation of new governments is very possible.
New Challenges
The climate conditions on Mars are drastically different from what we have on Earth. The same applies to gravity. Mars is covered with difficult unexplored terrain and potential health hazards to humans. Alongside low gravity, toxic soil, radiation, and many other problems, colonizing humans will be forced to solve a plethora of unexplored issues.
Courtesy: Bruno Albino
An Insider Perspective
We asked Tesla & SpaceX insider Eli Burton what he thought of Elon Musk’s timeline for putting humans on Mars.
“Without a doubt SpaceX will land a starship on Mars by 2026. Once they get to orbit with a successful Starship Superheavy (Spaceship + Rocket) it will just be a matter of waiting for the next launch window when Mars and Earth are at their closest points in their respective orbits.
The first mission(s) will be cargo missions to begin leaving supplies on Mars for the eventual humans that step foot on Mars to utilize, explore with, and build habitats.
Don’t be surprised when SpaceX launches multiple Starships designated for Mars at the first window. With launch windows occurring only every 26 month SpaceX is going to make maximum use of each flight opportunity to make as much progress and conduct as many tests as possible.”
Conclusion
Watching Space X rapidly evolve their spaceship technology, the idea that humans will reach Mars by 2026 is highly plausible. No longer is it simply a matter of how soon we will reach Mars, but, what we will do once we reach the Red Planet. And, with such a massive lead taken by Elon Musk’s company, the next couple years will undoubtedly bring the best efforts from his companies biggest competitors.
With Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, Boeing and more, we are gearing up for a new type of space race. Private spaceflight companies run by some of the world’s richest men — and the resulting competition — will take humanity much further (literally) than it has ever gone before. Buckle up and hold onto your cash. It’s going to be a wild ride… and an expensive one!
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